Mr. Lance, who is in his fifth term, is winning usually 39 percent of a opinion opposite Tom Malinowski, a Democratic challenger. That’s a remarkably low series for an obligatory this late in a campaign.
And it’s not formidable to see because Mr. Lance is struggling: A infancy of a district disapproves of President Trump and a infancy also prefers Democrats to take control of Congress. That’s a familiar, if discomforting, balance for suburban Republicans opposite a country.
• There were other red flags for House Republicans from lesser-known races. The celebration has poured millions of dollars over a duration of months into some of a hardest-fought races in a many rival districts. But what worries G.O.P. strategists, and delights Democrats, are a races that have not gotten so most income and attention. And a span of polls, one open and one private, came out this week in dual such districts.
A Republican organisation perceived a consult from Illinois display that Representative Randy Hultgren, a incumbent, was tied with his Democratic challenger, Lauren Underwood, in an exurban Chicago district that Mr. Trump carried by 4 points in 2016.
Even some-more shocking for Republicans, a consult consecrated by a Pennsylvania ABC associate found that Representative Mike Kelly narrowly trailed his Democratic opponent, Ron DiNicola, in an Erie-area chair that is heavily pro-Trump.
Both incumbents might survive, though these sorts of numbers this late in a debate are a domestic homogeneous of flashing red warning lights for a G.O.P.
• At a opening of this election, few in possibly celebration suspicion Representative Steve King of Iowa was in any domestic peril. But as Mr. King continues to relate themes of white nationalism and offer support for nonconformist total abroad, he is sketch a arrange of neglected courtesy that might emanate problems in his re-election.