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Putin vs. Erdogan

On Feb. 2, Turkish President Recep Erdogan urgently sought an audience with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. The Turkish envoy in Moscow relayed the message, though has, it seems, nonetheless to receive a response.

It was the second time Erdogan has been rebuffed by Putin following Turkey’s downing of a Russian infantry jet in November. Instead of talking, Putin has indicted Turkey of stabbing Russia in the behind and supporting terrorists in Syria.

The underlying dispute is Putin’s support for Syrian President Bashar Assad. When Russia intervened in Syria’s polite fight at the finish of September, it saved an embattled regime that Erdogan had sought to overthrow.

The incompatibility of these vital visions has been exacerbated by a building personal adversary between Putin and Erdogan.

The two leaders have most in common. Both have peremptory styles, and both have done events in Syria a cornerstone of their recognition at home. Their instinct to escalate rather than behind down has combined an especially diligent conditions in which they could feasible come into conflict.

“Both Russia and Turkey are opposed any other’s pride,” says Dr. Theodore Karasik, a senior confidant at the UAE-based Gulf State Analytics. “The odds of an escalation is high. It’s a nightmare unfolding that might come true.”

First Contact

Russian planes began drifting fight missions to support Assad’s beleaguered belligerent army on Sept. 30. In mid-October, the Syrian infantry launched an assault on the northwestern segment of Aleppo, a swath of territory nestled opposite the Turkish limit and populated by Turkmen rebels upheld by Erdogan.

The assault was delayed to gain momentum, though Russian atmosphere support eventually gave Syrian supervision army a decisive edge. Ankara was not pleased, and claimed the Russian aircraft had been regularly violating Turkish airspace during operations. Then, on Nov. 24, the Turkish Air Force downed a Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber.

The diplomatic fallout from the shoot-down was quick and heated, though it remained cramped to rhetoric and economic plea by Russia. Since the incident, trade family with Turkey have all though damaged down, and Ankara is now embellished in Moscow as a supporter of terrorism.

Tensions between Russia and Turkey subsided by Dec and January — the ongoing conflict for Aleppo has nonetheless to sway in either side’s favor. But family once again took a turn for the worse on Jan. 30, when Ankara indicted another Russian aircraft of violating the airspace.

Round Two

True to form, Erdogan lashed out. “If Russia continues the violations of Turkish emperor rights, it will be forced to endure the consequences,” he said.

The U.S. infantry corroborated Turkey’s chronicle of events and called on both sides to show restraint.

The calls were mostly unheeded. On Feb. 1, the Russian Defense Ministry denounced the allegations as “naked propaganda,” and accused Turkish army of providing artillery cover to Turkmen insurgent army underneath attack from government infantry in Aleppo.

Also on Monday, the Kommersant journal reported that a Turkish jingoist organisation the Grey Wolves might have been obliged for the downing of a Russian municipal airliner over Egypt in October.

Turkey has been antagonizing Russia in its possess way. On Jan. 31, Russia’s Association of International Truck Drivers suggested Turkish licenses for their truckers had not been renewed — another poke in an ever-intensifying trade war.

“With Turkmen issuing into Turkey, Erdogan is now perplexing to play tough … though Russia is positively not going to change the behavior,” pronounced Dr. Theodore Karasik, a senior confidant at Gulf State Analytics.

But Erdogan’s diversion of playing it tough brings critical risks, and the reasons for this are than Turkey’s options are apropos increasingly limited.

Turkey is radically losing the onslaught opposite Russia in Syria. In the second half of January, the number of Russian atmosphere strikes on the Turkish limit increasing significantly. “After several strategically critical victories in the area, Russia and the Syrian supervision finally feel they are tighten to gaining some-more belligerent in Aleppo and in Latakia,” pronounced Barmin.

These gains might be solidified in the entrance days. On Jan. 3, the RIA Novosti news group reported that Assad’s army successfully encircled the rebels in Aleppo, slicing off their supply lines to the Turkish border.

Though Assad and his Russian allies have nonetheless to win the war, Russia has determined a de facto no fly section in northern Syria, and Turkey’s ability to supply the rebels might be in jeopardy.

“Russia vs. Turkey is now a permanent tie on the geopolitical map,” pronounced Karasik. “And the key reason is that Ankara is simply not removing the way.” 

Article source: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/558533.html