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A demeanour during what competence occur if Catalonia goes it alone

MADRID — The northeastern segment of Catalonia, one of Spain’s unconstrained regions, is melancholy to announce a autonomy from Spain following a doubtful referendum that, it says, gave it a charge to mangle away.

Spain, that announced a referendum bootleg and invalid, says it will do all to contend a country’s togetherness and keep reason of a segment of 7.5 million people centered around a pier city of Barcelona.

The dual would seem to be about to enter uncharted waters. Here’s a demeanour during how Spain got to this indicate and what competence occur next.

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DECLARING INDEPENDENCE

Catalan informal President Carles Puigdemont says he will keep his oath to announce autonomy unilaterally following a claimed win for a “Yes” side in Sunday’s doubtful referendum.

The pro-independence personality says that underneath a Catalan law a win with some-more than 50 percent of “Yes” votes triggers a stipulation of autonomy within 48 hours of a vote, regardless of a fact that a opinion was hold in intensely unsafe resources and that audience — even if loyal —was reduction than half of a electorate. That law was dangling by Spain’s Constitutional Court, though Puigdemont and his supervision seem set to omit this.

The autonomy stipulation could occur as early as Wednesday or Thursday when a informal council meets.

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WOULD CATALONIA BE RECOGNIZED AS A SEPARATE COUNTRY?

So distant no nation or ubiquitous physique has voiced any support for a Catalan government(asterisk)s autonomy drive, so any stipulation of autonomy is expected to be rejected, during a commencement during least. The European Union is station solidly behind Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and says Catalonia would be diminished from a confederation and a common euro currency.

Economically it is unfit to envision if it could survive. Catalonia has an annual sum domestic product of about 215 billion euros ($257 billion) — a largest of a Spanish regions and larger than Greece’s — though many of a products are granted by a Spanish state.

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WHAT IMMEDIATE CHANGES MIGHT BE EXPECTED?

Besides a dismissal of Spanish flags from central buildings, it(asterisk)s tough to see what else Catalan authorities could do. The feeling is that a stipulation would be a mystic one. Catalonia does not have confidence army sufficient to set adult borders and pivotal areas such as taxes, unfamiliar affairs, defense, ports, airports and trains are in a hands of a Spanish supervision in Madrid. Spain also recently took probably full control of Catalonia’s spending.

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SPAIN’S OPTIONS

Spain has dual categorical options and both would be painful. The constitution’s Article 155 allows a supervision to suspend, totally or partially, any region’ self-government if it disobeys a inherent obligations or attacks a ubiquitous interests of Spain. Catalonia would initial be warned and if it didn’t rectify, a measures motionless on would be put to a Senate for approval, a elementary matter for Rajoy as his celebration has a majority.

Possible measures could embody fixation a region’s military underneath Spanish control. If necessary, Spanish military could make a measures.

The other, some-more impassioned choice would be to announce a state of siege, should Spain’s supervision be deliberate underneath conflict — that a stipulation of autonomy competence consecrate — and this could concede for a cessation of polite rights and deception of martial law. It would need to be debated and authorized by a reduce residence of parliament, a formidable matter as Rajoy lacks a infancy there.

Neither choice is expected to occur overnight.

“The conditions is unequivocally critical in Spain now,” pronounced inherent law highbrow Fernando Simon of Spain’s University of Navarra, who pronounced Catalonia was fundamentally already in a state of rebellion. He pronounced possibly choice would meant Spain would enter different territory.

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A COMPROMISE

Given a stream state of affairs this is a many fascinating for all, though with conjunction side subsidy down, a slightest expected to happen.

Both sides contend they are open to discourse though both put adult conditions unsuitable to a other. Rajoy had insisted he couldn’t plead a referendum unless a structure was changed, and invited Catalonia to work on changing it. The Catalan supervision pronounced a right to self-determination contingency be reputable initial before talks could proceed. Catalonia now wants a EU to intervene, an doubtful prospect, and calls for ubiquitous mediation, something Spain is not expected to determine to.

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