As some-more purported pattern schematics and manikin models of a “iPhone 8” trickle online, one of a biggest questions stays a smartphone’s tangible launch date. Although some attention sources trust a tenth-anniversary iPhone will still launch in Sep — maybe in really brief supply — Japanese site Mac Otakara progressing this year suggested a OLED iPhone 8 would launch “very much” behind a a LCD models.
Today, KGI Securities researcher Ming-Chi Kuo has published a news ancillary a speculation that Apple will entrance a OLED iPhone in September, though a device will face “severe supply shortages” for some time. Kuo believes that prolongation ramp-up on a OLED iPhone indication won’t start until as late as October-November, dual months after than prior ramp-ups in August-September. Similar behind prolongation rumors have been circulated by Bloomberg, analysts from Barclays, and Brian White.
Kuo believes that this check “won’t criticise tangible demand,” as prolonged as a iPhone 8 lives adult to a hype, though a heaviest direct competence be pushed behind until as distant as a initial entertain of 2018, when a bulk of users could get their hands on a device according to Kuo.
Production ramp adult of OLED iPhone could be behind to October-November (previously estimated to be August-September, as in prior years). That said, if new features, such as 3D sensing, can yield good user experience, a proxy supply shortfall won’t criticise tangible demand, that might be deferred to 1H18. In that case, intensity grant starting late-2Q17 from OLED iPhone could be partially behind by 3-6 months for associated suppliers.
This behind prolongation ramp-up is listed by Kuo as a “potential downside risk to shipments” of all 3 iPhone models believed to launch this year, with a second risk entrance from Apple’s competitors. Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi are all gearing adult to launch “high-end full-screen smartphones” in 2017, and all could have an impact privately on a LCD models of a 2017 iPhone, according to Kuo, since those models “do not have full-screen form factors.”
Because of these intensity risks inspiring a iPhone’s shipments this year, Kuo practiced shipping estimates for a device accordingly. The researcher believes that a “worst box scenario” could see iPhone shipments diminution by 15 to 20 percent and outcome in 80 to 90 million units shipped, contra a prior guess of 100-110 million units (a 60:40 weighting is placed for a OLED and LCD iPhone models). Ultimately, Kuo pronounced that, “We see a aloft luck of a misfortune box unfolding entrance to pass.”
Production delays in this year’s OLED iPhone are again sourced from a device’s perplexing prolongation processes, interjection to countless upgrades including a customized OLED panel, new 10-nanometer A11 processor, all-new 3D Touch module, substrate-like printed circuit board, and 3D sensing. Despite these prolongation difficulties, Kuo pronounced that a iPhone 8’s proclamation and launch time of a new iPhones will sojourn identical to prior years, suggesting a common Sep iPhone eventuality from Apple.
While we trust a proclamation and launch time of a new iPhones will be identical to prior ones, prolongation ramp adult of OLED iPhone could be behind to as late as October-November compared to a common ramp adult duration of August-September, due to increasing prolongation difficulty. In other words, serious supply shortages might insist for a while after a new models are launched, capping sum shipments of new iPhones in 2H17.
Kuo also sees a intensity detriment of interest by high-end users on a LCD versions of a new iPhone models, due to their miss of a full-screen design, contributing to Apple’s potentially diseased shipping movement for a iPhone after this year in further to a misfortune box unfolding for a OLED model.