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Politics Report: The Biggest Post-Election Day Shifts

San Diego residents casts their opinion on Election Day 2018. / Photo by Adriana Heldiz

We’ve all gotten used to it yet still not really used to it: Election Day comes. The polls close. We see a formula that night and then, day by day, 5 or 6 races sojourn too tighten to call and their margins change gradually. It’s so gradual. It happens over so prolonged of a duration that it’s infrequently tough to take note of only how many it changed.

Well, domestic consultant Mason Herron motionless to break a numbers and see only how many any vital competition altered from Election Night to a final tally. We talked to him about a report he done open this week.

First, he reliable a obvious: Democrats benefit belligerent after Election Night, as absentees and provisional votes are all counted. Even yet many people mail in their ballots early now, that’s still something a lot of Republicans do. Democrats do really good on Election Day voting. The Registrar of Voters finishes Election Day with hundreds of thousands of votes left to count. In California, if we mail your absentee list in a day before a election, it depends even if it comes in after Election Day.

But a numbers are flattering interesting.

Herron pronounced that, after choosing night, Republicans can generally design to remove 4.7 commission points, and Dems can design to benefit that. It can change widely.

Check out a tip 10 races that shifted a many after Election Day:

Data pleasantness of Mason Herron

Herron pronounced he was quite meddlesome in those North County city legislature races. The overlapping and extreme contests for Congress might have done a shifts even some-more thespian in Vista (where Mike Levin’s congressional debate was really active branch out late voters) and Escondido (where Ammar Campa-Najar had a identical operation).

The change was many thespian for races on a state turn where partisanship has prolonged tangible a contests. For local, metropolitan races, though, where partisanship hasn’t always been a defining factor, a change was reduction dramatic. “Democratic possibilities gained, in aggregate, 2.18% of a opinion share between Election Night and a approved results, while Republicans mislaid 2.36%,” Herron wrote.

Herron pronounced he was only privately curious. So he wrote an impossibly detailed, engaging report. As one does.

County District 2 Race Could Be Amazing

SANDAG house and Poway Mayor Steve Vaus. / Photo by Vito Di Stefano

This week we schooled that Poway Mayor Steve Vaus has thrown his cowboy hat into a ring for a county administrator competition in 2020 to attain Dianne Jacob, who will be termed out. Jacob permitted him in his launch video — all a Republican supervisors did, in fact. So did Mayor Kevin Faulconer.

I have a soothing spot: Vaus was one of a few SANDAG house members who review and solemnly deliberate a stating on SANDAG. They lifted concerns that a stating had determined a group would not be means to make good on a promises for travel improvements done to electorate to get capitulation for a 2004 taxation extension. Even yet we were derided and discounted, we were right. Says, SANDAG. This was conspicuous news to get Friday. Finally, a many critical explanation Andrew Keatts dug adult was verified.

Anyway, behind to a race: Vaus is a regressive who only simply won re-election in Poway.

Joel Anderson, a former state senator, had laid explain to a chair from a Republican side yet has been off a radar given he mislaid a competition for Board of Equalization to a kooky former San Diego City Councilman slumlord Mike Schaefer. Anderson still has some income set aside for a race.

And afterwards there’s this: Tom Lemmon, a lax cannon conduct of a bloc of labor unions famous as a Building Trades Council, has let it be famous that he is deliberation using for a seat. He owns a home in East County.

Tom Lemmon is a business manager of a San Diego County Building and Construction Trades Council. / Photo by Adriana Heldiz

This, of course, would be bananas. The district is flattering regressive yet Lemmon would make a ton of noise, and labor could afterwards put in play dual intensity pickups as it tries to flip a Board of Supervisors.

Asked if he was deliberation running, Lemmon said, “I’m putting a pieces together.”

Could Lemmon Win?

John Cox kick Gavin Newsom in a governor’s competition in a areas that make adult a district 54 percent to 46 and Donald Trump kick Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 44 percent in a district (Thanks to Lucas O’Connor for using those numbers fast for me). Again, a district is flattering conservative. But Lemmon could be kind of a materialisation and Campa-Najjar showed how tighten an Democrat can get when they run a strong-well saved campaign.

Though he did face a really uneasy rival. And he still lost.


Interesting eventuality alert: we will be moderating a row for a La Mesa-Foothills Democratic Club. Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, developer Ginger Hitzke and counsel (and mayoral candidate) Cory Briggs will plead affordable housing, NIMBYs vs. YIMBYs and a prospects of building housing around transit.

It’s Mar 6 during 7 p.m. during a La Mesa Adult Enrichment Center.

If we are truly entering a time of sum Democratic prevalence in internal politics, this will be one of a vital rifts. Plenty of Dems have no seductiveness in easy some-more housing nearby them and copiousness of them are pulling accurately that.

Related, check out this point, counterpoint: Briggs put out a kind of manifesto on Facebook slamming a transformation dubbed YIMBY, that is advocating for some-more housing nearby transformation and a easing of restrictions on building it. He wants to hindrance all their proposals being deliberate by a City Council until they have been complicated more.

That brought this courteous response from author Doug Porter. “Cory deserves to be heard, and we need somebody with a good eye for fact examination over what’s is about to occur in a city. The defensiveness oozing between a difference in this tract diminishes a strength of his arguments,” Porter wrote.

A Tweet That Got Our Attention: This one comes from Chris Reed, a U-T editorial writer: “In a spectacularly blunt talk with U-T editorial board, Assemblywoman Shirley Weber, D-San Diego, assails military and clergyman unions for bad faith. Says 91% graduation explain in 2017 by San Diego Unified is ridiculous wonders if those who trust it also trust in unicorns.”

I got a matter from a Unicorns Association of America: “We don’t respond to nonessential smears. Assemblywoman Weber should be bustling elucidate a problems of California’s girl not abrasive their dreams.”

Contact me during scott@voiceofsandiego.org.

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