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Win Your Oscar Pool With Our Blisteringly Accurate Predictions

Oscar statues in a Hollywood behind lot removing a final touch-up before a 89th Academy Awards on Sunday.

Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images

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Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images

Oscar statues in a Hollywood behind lot removing a final touch-up before a 89th Academy Awards on Sunday.

Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images

Look: You wish to win your Oscar pool. We wish we to win your Oscar pool.

In truth, we feel we owe it to you.

You took our recommendation on a Emmys, final September, and we did … okay. Seventeen right, out of 27 categories. Which, yes, if you’re a kind of egregiously uninspired boor who clings, with a willfully hidebound insistence, to a “rules” of “math,” works out to 62%. A “failing” “grade.”

This meant that, approbation okay, your awful crony Trish won a evening, and has been gloating about it for months, in that gratingly pompous approach of hers. Like that time we went to see Arrival, and she waited until a film started to gaunt over and wheeze hotly in your ear, “It’s not your fault, we meant who saw Bloodline‘s Ben Mendelsohn coming, right?”

This forwardness will not stand. Take heart: Tomorrow night, if we follow a picks below, Trish is going down.

REMINDER: The Pop Culture Happy Hour organisation (Linda Holmes, Stephen Thompson, Glen Weldon, writer Jessica Reedy and All Things Considered’s Bob Mondello) will be live-blogging a Oscars tomorrow night, commencement during 6pm ET. Join us during oscars.npr.org

Know that we are requesting precisely a same grade of sterile, empiricist strictness to a Oscar prognostications that we did to a Emmy picks.

Know, too, that in many of a vital categories, odds-makers and prognosticators have identified transparent front-runners, and a required knowledge around their chances has remained remarkably stable, ever given a nominations were announced.


There’s each reason to trust that this year, a required knowledge should be regarded with a splash of salt. A shovelful of salt. A 40-pound Costco bag of Snowmelt.

Because a Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) — a members of that opinion on a Oscars — took long-overdue stairs final year to variegate and revivify their voting pool. A bit.

Let’s demeanour during a numbers. Some 6,004 active members voted for a 2016 Oscars final February. In June, AMPAS combined 683 new members. Of this new group, 46% are women, 41% percent are people of color, and 41% are from 59 countries outward a U.S.

Encouraging? Sure. But a needle hasn’t changed all that much: membership still stands during 89% male, and 73% white.

The Academy’s a prolonged approach from woke, though it’s sleeping lighter.

For a prognosticating purposes, what matters is that about 10% of those who are voting this year have never expel an Oscar list before. They’re also younger, on average, than their fellows.

As a result, a required knowledge — a “Oscar buzz” that historically reflects a go-to, calcified, show-bizzy assumptions of Oscar-watchers who’ve been examination a Oscars for years — is reduction constant than ever.

The picks next try to comment for this new landscape. Inasmuch as they can. Which is not really much.

But, um, trust us anyway?

NPR’s Searingly Scientific, Rigorously Discerned, Ferociously Objective Oscar Picks, Which Glow With The Soft Comforting Warmth Of Complete And Unutterable Rightness And Are Not Repeat NOT Wild Guesses So Just Get THAT Idea Out Of Your Head Right Now


Pop Culture Happy Hour: Our Oscars Preview

  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Hidden Figures
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester by a Sea
  • Moonlight

The conflict here’s between Moonlight and La La Land. (This will be a final Oscar handed out tomorrow night, though if La La Land racks adult some early categories, you’ll know that approach a evening’s headed.) Many assume that Hollywood’s prolonged lane record of rewarding cinema about itself — “dreams done of flickering light and shadow” and whatnot — creates La La Land a shoo-in. But all those new members, and a post-election domestic climate, competence be adequate to give a smaller, moodier, achingly pleasing Moonlight a movement it needs to take a trophy.

… But substantially not. This is The Artist all over again.

Who Will Win: La La Land


Denzel Washington And Viola Davis On Adapting 'Fences' And Honoring Aug Wilson

  • Casey Affleck, Manchester by a Sea
  • Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
  • Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  • Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
  • Denzel Washington, Fences

It’s between Affleck and Washington, and Affleck’s chances have been vanishing over a past few months. There’s also a fact that it’s such a hooded, inwardly destined opening — masterful, though unshowy in ways that competence fly next some voters’ radar. Smart money’s on Washington: It’s a large opening of an iconic American purpose in a work that’s revered. Yes, he’s won twice before (for best ancillary in Glory and best actor in Training Day). Doesn’t matter. If he wins tomorrow, he’ll be a initial black actor to take home 3 trophies.

Who Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences


'It's A Playground': Meryl Streep On Acting With Abandon

  • Isabelle Huppert, Elle
  • Ruth Negga, Loving
  • Natalie Portman, Jackie
  • Emma Stone, La La Land
  • Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Negga was still and assured, Portman’s opening was deeply divisive (I desired it, though we get how people suspicion it mannered), ditto Huppert, and Streep was Streeping to kick a band. With a stick. But La La Land‘s about dreams done of flickering light and shadow, have we heard? The usually doubt is either she’ll dedicate it to her aunt who used to live in Paris.

Who Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land


In 'Moonlight,' Actor Mahershala Ali Found Characters He Recognized

  • Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  • Lucas Hedges, Manchester by a Sea
  • Dev Patel, Lion
  • Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

One of a few thatch of a night.

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight


  • Viola Davis, Fences
  • Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman, Lion
  • Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
  • Michelle Williams, Manchester by a Sea

Another of a evening’s comprehensive locks. You won’t find bigger thatch on a Panama Canal.

Who Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences


A Samurai's Son Makes Stop-Motion Magic With Music And Origami

  • Kubo and a Two Strings
  • Moana
  • My Life as a Zucchini
  • The Red Turtle
  • Zootopia

There are those who will tell we that a actual best charcterised underline of a year, Kubo and a Two Strings, will win this year, since it usually won a BAFTA, that has a good lane record of picking this category’s winners. Do not trust them.

Who Will Win: Zootopia


Behind This Exuberant Dance Number? Planning, Precision And Practice

  • Arrival
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
  • Silence

Moonlight, Lion, and Arrival featured cinematography that upheld their stories, clever them, invited assembly to live inside them. Silence is old-school spectacle, expecting and gorgeous. It’s also a Scorsese film’s usually nomination, and there’s a plain possibility that electorate competence singular it out in an bid to respect a director. But afterwards again, dreams done of flickering light and shade blah blah blah.

Who Will Win: La La Land


Colleen Atwood: To Design The Costume, Understand The Character

  • Allied
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Jackie
  • La La land

Tough one. Historically, a Academy rewards duration pictures, with all their lofty bustles and bonnets and brooches. Which would disagree for all though La La Land. If we consider a recoil opposite La La Land is clever adequate that you’re prepared to risk another detriment to Trish (who’s assured of a La La Land sweep), a good place to bound off a LLL sight is a repository noted Jackie, which was meticulously stylish and neat as hell. But if we do, you’re braver than us. Because those dreams! They’re done of flickering light! And shadow, also!

Who Will Win: La La Land


Everyone Is Talking To Barry Jenkins But Our Interview Is The Best

  • Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  • Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
  • Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
  • Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by a Sea
  • Denis Villenueve, Arrival

Usually — in 64 out of a 88 past Oscar ceremonies, or 73% of a time — a best design and best executive awards go to a same film. But this year is anything though usual, and splits are removing some-more and some-more common. (2013: Argo/Life of Pi; 2014: 12 Years a Slave/Gravity; 2016: Spotlight/The Revenant.) A separate gives a Academy a possibility to widespread a adore around, and in a year when there’s a choice between a renouned “dreams done of flickering light and shadow” choice and a lesser-seen vicious darling, it’s commencement to demeanour a like Splitsville.

Who Will Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight. (If he does, he’ll be a initial black executive to win.)


Oscar Documentaries And A Foreign Language Film We Loved

  • Fire during Sea
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • Life, Animated
  • OJ: Made In America
  • 13th

Three out of a 5 nominees (I Am Not Your Negro, OJ: Made in America and 13th) tackle competition in America. The fight’s between Ava DuVernay’s pretentious 13th and a sprawling, 467-minute, low dive into a OJ Simpson case. 13th creates a absolute and stirring argument, while OJ: Made in America dedicates itself to creation a spectator place an achingly sensitive eventuality in a unconditional informative context. (Its Hollywood environment does not harm a chances.) OJ has a corner here — though if there’s a hit opposite it, it’s that it’s a radio plan that got a VERY singular melodramatic recover to validate for this award. The Academy competence spot during that.

Who Will Win: OJ: Made in America


These Oscar-Nominated Documentaries Tell Intimate Stories Of Syria's Civil War

  • Extremis
  • 4.1 Miles
  • Joe’s Violin
  • Watani: My Homeland
  • The White Helmets

Extremis profiles a palliative caring dilettante treating terminally ill patients in an Oakland ICU. 4.1 Miles follows a captain in a Greek Coast Guard swept adult in a ongoing migrant crisis, and both Watani: My Homeland and The White Helmets benefaction a ground-level perspective of war-torn Syria. They are, in opposite ways, withering and stark. Only Joe’s Violin — about a aged male who mislaid most of his family in a Holocaust, and his preference to present his dear violin to a Bronx Global Learning Institute for Girls — offers anything like a faintest spark of hope. Voters will expected seize on that.

Who Will Win: Joe’s Violin


Pop Culture Advent Calendar, Day 4: The Long Walk To Chiron's Car In 'Moonlight'

  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • Moonlight

Take a demeanour during how that caf� theatre in Moonlight creates we live in a tragedy and doubt of a moment, and tell me it doesn’t merit a Oscar. The black beans and rice alone! But who are we kidding. It’s a “dreams done of flickering light and shadow” world, and we’re all usually livin’ in it.

Who Will Win: La La Land


Attention Must Be Paid To What 'The Salesman' Is Selling

  • Land of Mine, Denmark
  • A Man Called Ove, Sweden
  • The Salesman, Iran
  • Tanna, Australia
  • Toni Erdmann, Germany

The Iranian writer/director Ashgar Farhadi won’t be during a ceremony, though that doesn’t matter.

Who Will Win: The Salesman, Iran.


'Suicide Squad' Falls Far Short Of Its Goals

  • A Man Called Ove
  • Star Trek Beyond
  • Suicide Squad

I know we keep harping on this, people, though seriously: If we concede a difference “The Oscar-winning Suicide Squad” into a universe, we fervently trust they’ll open a difference in spacetime from that will brief all demeanour of squamous gibbering eldritch horrors focussed on a annihilation. It’s a thing we worry about. Besides, there’s a distant improved choice, that reflects how really distant Star Trek has come from slapping a clod of suggestion resin between a eyebrows of a day-player and shoving him in front of a camera.

Who Will Win: Star Trek Beyond


'Jackie' Shows A First Lady Behind Closed Doors — But The Music Is Front And Center

  • Jackie
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
  • Passengers

Moonlight‘s measure was beautiful, Jackie‘s was … unfit to skip (BRAAAAMMMMM), Lion‘s did a work, and Passengers’ was there also. (Arrival‘s was overlooked, for what it’s worth.) But La La Land’s measure is roughly disquietingly hummable. Also? Not to put too excellent a indicate on it? Dreams done of flickering light and shadow.

Who Will Win: La La Land


Pop Culture Advent Calendar, Day 5: 'Hamilton' And Love Is Love Is Love Is Love

  • “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
  • “Can’t Stop a Feeling,” Trolls
  • “City of Stars,” La La Land
  • “The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
  • “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Conventional knowledge says “City of Stars,” from La La Land. And in a defense: “dreams done of flickering light and shadow,” after all. But it’s adult opposite “Audition,” a strain that is so very “dreams done flickering light and shadow” it most creates namaste-hands during you. They could separate a vote, permitting something else to cheep in. Which is since we’re flinging required knowledge to a 4 winds and going with a heart on this one. Because if “How Far I’ll Go” wins, Lin-Manuel Miranda will: 1. Get a O in his EGOT, 2. Be a youngest EGOT-holder in history, and 3. Give an acceptance rap. Those are 3 good things, right there.

Who Will Win: “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana


Pop Culture Advent Calendar, Day 7: The 'No Dames' Number From 'Hail, Caesar!'

  • Arrival
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Hail, Caesar!
  • La La Land
  • Passengers

Arrival‘s visitor boat is supernatural and unforgettable, and Fantastic Beasts is showy, though greatfully people, let’s not forget about dreams, and what they’re done of. (Psst it’s flickering light and shadow, beeteedubs.)

Who Will Win: La La Land


  • Blind Vaysha
  • Borrowed Time
  • Pear Cider and Cigarettes
  • Pearl
  • Piper

Piper‘s a Pixar short, and it’s looking like a studio will skip out on a charcterised underline Oscar, so this will make a good satisfaction prize.

Who Will Win: Piper


  • Ennemis Interieurs
  • La Femme Et Le TGV
  • Silent Nights
  • Sing
  • Timecode

Ennemis Interieurs, a tense, intimate, splendidly acted film about a French policeman of Algerian skirmish interrogating a French-born Algerian man, plays with a spectator in ways that electorate are expected to appreciate. (Timecode is really cute, though; don’t count it out.)

Who Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs


  • Arrival
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Sully

On a one hand: Dreams done of flickering light and shadow. On a other: War is both hell, and hella noisy.

Who Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge


After 21 Nominations, Will Sound Mixer Kevin O'Connell Finally Win His Oscar?

  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  • 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Three fight films here (Hacksaw Ridge, Rogue One, and 13 Hours). And if Hacksaw Ridge takes it, it’ll be Kevin O’Connor’s initial win, carrying been nominated 21 times.

But afterwards again: flickering light, shadow, dreams etc.

Who Will Win: La La Land


  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Doctor Strange
  • The Jungle Book
  • Kubo and a Two Strings
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Doctor Strange was trippy, Kubo and a Two Strings was monumental (and if it wins, it’ll be a initial charcterised film to do so – weird, right?), though a pristine technical feat of The Jungle Book will take a day.

Who Will Win: The Jungle Book


'Arrival' Is Smart, Stylish Sci-Fi About Language, Not Laser Beams

  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hidden Figures
  • Lion
  • Moonlight

Here’s a possibility for a Academy to commend both La La Land and Moonlight by bursting a adapted/original essay awards. But it’s also a possibility for them to give a evening’s usually curtsy to a hugely renouned Hidden Figures (if Octavia Spencer doesn’t win).

Who Will Win: Moonlight


Pop Culture Advent Calendar, Day 2: Colin Farrell Makes A Choice In 'The Lobster'

  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • The Lobster
  • Manchester by a Sea
  • 20th Century Women

The Lobster was my favorite film of a year, and a essay difficulty is historically where a Academy recognizes films that are too quirky to validate for a mass interest of best picture. Hell or High Water and, especially, 20th Century Women underline smart, radical scripts. La La Land done a list, notwithstanding a mediocre screenplay, for reasons carrying to do with flickering light and shadow, which, we am reliably informed, are a things of dreams. But this is Manchester by a Sea’s to lose.

Who Will Win: Manchester by a Sea

There we have it. Good luck! Deliver unto Trish a ruinous defeat!

Here’s one final thing to keep in mind: Even if La La Land doesn’t brush all 14 of a categories in that it’s nominated (and it won’t, notwithstanding Trish’s wild-eyed convictions), it usually needs to win 11 of them to tie with record-holders Lord of a Rings: The Return of a King, Titanic and Ben-Hur. Should it skip usually dual of a categories, it’ll mangle a Oscar record.

Regardless, we can be certain that a Oscar’s band will be personification snippets from La La Land‘s measure many, many times tomorrow night. But which of a songs will they launch into, as members of a expel and/or organisation mount to a stage?

Take bets during your Oscar party, before a night begins.

Trish will say, “City of Stars,” since it’s nominated. Foolish Trish! Ridiculous, witless Trish! It’s most too delayed and somber! Ditto “Audition.” No, a walk-up song needs to be some-more celebratory. It could be “Someone in a Crowd,” of course.

But no: The intelligent money’s on “Another Day of Sun.”

So get ready, tomorrow night, for a lot of ba ba BA ba-BA ba-ba ba-ba, ba ba BA ba-BA ba-ba BA-ba, and also, as we trust we’ve done clear, for copiousness of dreams done of flickering light and shadow.

How many? Definitely not 14, and substantially not 11, though during slightest 8 of them, we’re predicting.

Article source: http://www.npr.org/sections/monkeysee/2017/02/25/516863651/win-your-oscar-pool-with-our-blisteringly-accurate-predictions